Технологии зла.
Feb. 14th, 2014 02:00 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
ofeliyadd
У меня очень плохие новости. Кое-кому во власти таки снесло крышу, и эти кремлевские прихвостни будут пытаться устроить нам в эти выходные кровавое воскресение. В Днепропетровске или Харькове, или Запорожье, или в нескольких местах сразу. Намечается грандиозная провокация в виде атак на областные администрации. Цель этой безумной аферы - повод для введения ЧП. Отморозки от власти готовят команду гастролеров (технология всё та же - фашисты - антифашитсы). Пока тупой манюпас проглатывает это дерьмо, этим отлично пользуются всякие сволочи. Теперь что касается гастролеров: якобы это будет Правый сектор. Все действия по подготовке маршей к "злочинной владе" ведутся от его имени, правда, иногда прикрываются активистами от местных евромайданов, но это скорее частности. Весь анекдот в том, что многие из этих людей, которых нам хотят преподнести, как "бандеровцев-западенцев", не могут говорить по-украински. Особенно интересен в этой связи Днепропетровск, его в воскресение планирует посетить Кличко. Короче, столица украинского терроризма ждет очередных приключений.Что осталось незамеченным в Сочи? Это турист Вилкул. Кто-то знает, чего его туда понесло, когда в стране такой кризис? Думаю, что Янык пытался уболтать Путина на премьерство Вилкула. И что же: факир был пьян и фокус не удался? Хотя я нахожу очень странным, что после встречи с Путиным именно в бывшей вотчине этого "большого ученого" по продаже днепропетровской собственности, планируются провокации. Почему бы не продемонстрировать себя таким образом - другом Путина, и не попытаться стать следующим кандидатом в президенты от России? Это мое предположение, но у меня глаз наметан на всякую сволочь. А Яныку просто дали понять, что он еще пока выездной, но денег не дали. Нет у Путина денег. И вот теперь еще подождем - всплывет ли Лукаш в премьерской гонке? Кино обещает быть интересным.
А еще так же осталось в тени то, что Президент Румынии Траян Бэсеску сообщил в эфире LookTV, что Бухарест «нажал на тормоза в процессе выдачи паспортов жителям Молдовы». Премьер-министр Румынии Виктор Понта после поездки в Сочи заявил, что Бухарест не намерен игнорировать интересы России в регионе. Содокладчик Европарламента по договору об ассоциации Грэхэм Уотсон объяснил это «массированной поддержкой» жителей Гагаузской автономии Молдавии Таможенного союза. По итогам референдума, прошедшего в автономии, более 90% опрошенных высказались за Таможенный союз и только 1,5% – за ЕС. Именно таким образом можно тормозить процессы евроинтеграции бывших постсоветских республик. Для этого Путину и нужна федерализация Украины. Тот же финт можно проделать и здесь, организовав референдум в отдельно взятой Одессе, из которой и хотят сделать еще одно Приднестровье (Гагаузию), или в Крыму, затормозить этот процесс в Украине.
«Мы сожалеем, что столько людей (в Гагаузии) высказались в пользу Таможенного союза. Признаем чрезвычайную силу, которой владеет Россия в том, что касается экономического предложения, и, как следствие, мы должны работать лучше. Мы – демократия и не примем в члены ни одну страну, население которой не желает войти в ЕС. Поэтому это задача политиков в Молдове – убедить людей. Мы не наивны. Мы знаем, что Россия пытается купить часть Молдовы, чтобы приостановить процесс евроинтеграции. Мы пытаемся предложить молдавским гражданам жизнь свободы и процветания, которую русские, будем откровенны, не предлагают», сказал содокладчик Европарламента по договору об ассоциации Грэхэм Уотсон.
Сценарий для Крыма такой же как и для Гагаузии или Южной Осетии. Крымские депутаты, подкормленные Кремлем, должны обратиться в Верховну Раду с предложением отменить поправку о том, что Конституция АРК подчиняется Конституции Украины. Это якобы ограничивает права крымчан. Сейчас крымские купленные политики хотят убедить избирателей, что подчинение Крыма Конституции Украины заставляет их перечислять налоги в Госбюджет Украины, а не оставлять их на местах. Однако умалчивают тот факт, что Крым - автономия дотационная. В прошлом году Крым перечислил в госбюджет 1,94 млрд. грн, а получил из того же бюджета 5,4 млрд. грн. Кто-нибудь из политиков объясняет крымчанам, чем для них это все чревато? Зачем России нужна политическая автономия Крыма?
Если России удалось отделить от Грузии этнически ЮО и Абхазию, то в Украине такой номер не пройдет. Поэтому и придумали эту тупость с фашистами - антифашистами для развода лохов. Вы, может быть, думаете, что Россия присоединит все эти горящие территории к себе. Ага, "щас". Крым тоже нужен России только в составе Украины. Если Крым перестанет быть частью Украины, и не будет голосовать, то электоральное преимущество в Украине получится не в пользу пророссийских сил. Тогда они потеряют всю остальную Украину и сразу.Когда осетины начали донимать Суркова, курирующего сейчас их территории, скорейшим присоединением к России, то он им сказал, что окститесь, вы же хотели независимости, так вот и добивайтесь теперь мирового признания. России ЮО нужна для контроля рокского тоннеля, по которому можно пустить танки. Кроме того от ЮО к Армении лежит грузинская земля, в большом количестве населенная этническими армянами. Потому и любой вопрос о вступлении Грузии в НАТО, сразу же блокируется Россией восстанием на этих территориях неких "армянских сепаратистов". Это страшный козырь в руках России. Ничего больше их не интересует. Так что не будут они забирать Крым. Не стройте себе иллюзий. Федерализация им нужна. Горячие точки на карте Украины. Разделяй и властвуй!
Люди. Какие люди? Нельзя быть такими наивными, а особенно людям, прошедшим СССР. Вспомните, чем там были забиты головы маразматиков из КПСС. Только гонкой вооружения. Путин болен тем же. Поэтому Крым будут брутально иметь ради дешевых российских понтов. Зачем это нужно Украинцам? Вы хотите иметь здесь свое Приднестровье, Абхазию, Южную Осетию? Вы же не идиоты все! Ну, посмотрите, как там сейчас живут люди. Сильно много счастья принесло абхазам и осетинам отделение от Грузии? Или второе Приднестровье - это предел мечтаний крымчан? Что же вы, крымчане, ведётесь на всякие политические аферы. Вы же буквально выли от того, что вытворяют рыги, кляли эту власть. Украина с рыгами перестала быть нормальной страной - это полицейская хунта, а не государство. Но как только люди вышли на Майдан, против этой власти, так сразу все стали бандеровцами. Неужели вы не понимаете, что вами манипулируют, а кто-то на вас еще и наживается.
Россия не настолько крупный игрок, чтоб решить вопрос Украины дипломатически, поэтому будет расшатывать ситуацию изнутри, создавая искусственно образ врага. Ничего, по сути, не изменилось со времен Совка. Как были раньше США главным врагом СССР, так этим же врагом и остались для российского манюпаса и по сей день. Ну не может россиянин жить без взращенного в себе образа врага. Во всех его бедах всегда должен быть виноват кто-то - США, Украина. Истерия в России, как антибандеровская так и антиамериканская просто зашкаливает. Россиян не переделаешь - это диагноз, но свои-то? Ну не любите вы Западную Украину: как же ее полюбить, сидя на иголке российских каналов ТВ? Вот эти пятиминутки ненависти от Киселева разве могут вас заставить полюбить красивейший Львов? Зато очень даже могут научить ненавидеть. Вам же никто не говорит: ребята, вы тут живете за чертой бедности и вы никакой не регион-донор, и Донбасс не кормит всю Украину: 3,85 млрд. грн вы отдали в украинский бюджет, а получили из него 13,09 млрд. грн. Так кто кого кормит? В вас постоянно вливают, и трудится над этим вся Украина. Но ведь Майдан - это киевляне в основном. Их-то за что ненавидеть?
Почему оппозиция молчит обо всем этом? Есть вещи, которым я постоянно удивляюсь. Особенно стратегическим глупостям оппозиционеров. Вот может мне кто-нибудь объяснить: какому олуху пришло в голову захватывать обладминистрации в Западной Украине, где и так никто не поддерживает власть; где Янык и так ничего не контролировал? Какой смысл? Вот захватили вы ее - власть, уволили главу администрации, и что дальше? В казне нет денег, спрашивается, если власть сейчас приостановит платежи, то где она их приостановит в первую очередь? На ЗУ. Кто-нибудь об этом из вас подумал, когда захватывали. Так теперь подумайте, что стоит власть без денег? И к кому будут потом претензии голодного народа? К новым властям. И вот так по-дебильному может оппозиция угробить свой рейтинг на ЗУ. О, да, тактически вы выиграли, но стратегически опять продуете. Некому у вас мозгами шевелить.
Петя Порошенко - большой патриот, выводящий свои активы в Россию, мотается по всему миру, пиарится, со всеми договаривается, в надежде усесться в тонущий "Титаник". Синдром "любі друзі" неизлечим. Петя тоже со своей стороны расшатывает корабль. Он думает, что если доведет ситуацию до катарсиса, то Янык будет вынужден согласиться на его кандидатуру. Ситуация странная. Оппозиция вроде есть, а переговоры вести не с кем. Нет одного лидера. Сейчас Клюев вроде и не участвует в переговорах, одна только Лукаш. Она одна комментирует за всех: и за власть, и за оппозицию, тролля ее тем, что они не контролируют ситуацию. А оппозиция говорит, что контролирует. А радикалы говорят, что нет. Пете нужно показать, что он близок к радикалам, и этим самым заставить вести переговоры с ним, списав окончательно оппозиционную тройку, а главное - понизить рейтинг Кличко. И чем больше неуправляема будет ситуация на Майдане с радикалами, тем вероятнее, что власть вынуждена будет договариваться с Петей. Пете главное влезть в процесс, а то, что страна летит в пропасть - Пете по фиг. Главное - это доступ к бюджету. Вот интересно, почему Яроша никто не трогает? Даже безобидный Данилюк смылся, а этот открыто пиарится. Кого угодно преследуют, но только не этого днепродзержинского героя. А не трогают прямо с момента подрыва головы Сталина в Запорожье, к которому он конечно же, как и "Тризуб", взявший тогда на себя ответственность за эту провокацию, спланированную СБушниками, "не имел никакого тогда отношения". Вот странным образом с тех самых пор его никак и не могут найти.
Помните, когда говорили, что Янык объединит страну, как никто другой? Не в коня корм! Эти люди способны сеять только вражду. Какие у нас причины ненавидеть друг друга. Почему вдруг сейчас возникла эта технология фашисты - антифашисты? Между нами пытаются посеять вражду мелкими и несущественными различиями. Ее нам пытаются внушить извне, предполагая, что она - ненависть в нас существует. Она действительно в нас существует - ненависть к власти, но господа Клюев, Лукаш пытаются взять ее под свой контроль, направив нашу враждебность и агрессию не на них, а на нас же самих. Мы должны выпустить пар ненависти и напряжения на какой-то объект, и вот он найден, и подсунут нам - фашисты-антифашисты. Технология проста: ненависть не должна иметь отношения к самой причине конфликта, а просто стать механизмом усиливающим враждебность между нами. Вот к ней и побуждает клюевская пропаганда, способная разжечь любой конфликт и войну. Нашу Всеукраинскую Антикриминальную Революцию народа переформатировали в русло нетерпимости одной части страны к другой. Заодно списав по сути уже случившийся дефолт на борьбу двух Украин между собой. И всего-то с помощью одной простой технологии нетерпимости а ля фашисты. Одну группу людей заставили ненавидеть другую. Вот так запросто, пользуясь подобными мерзостями, нашу страну пытаются превратить в горячую точку. Когда опомнимся - будет поздно. Хороший пример выхода из этой ситуации предложили ультрас Украины «Від Луганська до Карпат фанат фанату - друг і брат»
Слава Україні!
NO
Date: 2014-02-14 05:42 am (UTC)Logical Questions
Date: 2014-02-14 07:26 pm (UTC)Firstly Iâm sorry for my bad language, for Iâm studying it and there is a wonderful opportunity to get my skills on it better. )))
Iâm watching out for your writings for a long time, since you has appeared here, and reading your insights with very strong interest. Much of these thesis you announced here are correspondent with my observations. Likewise policy presented by you. Really US have its own interests, itâs right and good, and thereâs no place in geopolitics for emotions. However, it remains a place for logics and causality, and I would discern one point you omitted it.
So, if you talk about self-responsibility of Ukrainian civil society, you should be aware of two correcting points.
Firstly, - and this was claimed here â itâs very incorrect to demand such responsibility and awareness from the post-genocidical nation. These people you put as an examble â as an example of ferocity and aloofness â are exactly the same product of totalitarian deviation and deformation of human feeling and understanding. Didnât you read the Hannah Arendtâs âThe Origins of Totalitarianismâ? I suppose, you read. Than how do you answer: Ukrainian lived out 20 years yet and why they have so brutal exemplars? Such exemplars exactly are examples of totalitarian heritage! Than we still have a post-totalitarian and, moreover post-genocidal society here. And because of it we can demand from a fish to be a bird, we must give her a time to sprout wings.
Especially taking into account the reason that Ukr. civ. society itself (such a part which stay on Maidan, which come out to squares after 30.11, which consists that same civic nation, not that okhlos (Crowd) with 20 USD) â this civ,society, as we may see here, is strongly intend to keep the freedom and unity our country! But look at second pointâ¦
Secondly, how do you say about âindependent civil society actionsâ, when you yourself restrain actions of Ukrainian opposition? Iâm strongly confident if our opposition act itself, she wouldnât act so as she acted. Anyway, their actions were so weak and illogical as they wouldnât if anyone really want to seize power.
Ultimately,, doesnât you said that Americans restrain Opp.?
This all was about logical points.
Finally we all are aware that independence and state unity of Ukraine are wanted for Ukrainian patriotic organizations and a whole nation (nation! Not a people-mass which are injured with effects of soviet epoch, you know this difference) â so as well as for American geopolitical interests in this region.
US too frequently suffer defeat in the geopolitical war. It isnât good sign for American allies. Moreover, and more importantly â US once leave Europe without its attention and support. The next event was Pearl Harbor. Do Americans want that new isolationist policy leads to such bloody occasions in their own land? Hopefully, donât.
And Ukraine is in this history as Stalingrad battle for Russia and Germany in 1942, and as the battle of Midway for Americans.
Thereâs no emotions here again, Only historical reasoning, and analogy in contemporary politics.
Finally at all, Ukraine â united and strong â will be a friendly nation not only for US but also for Israel, because in a strange way the Ukraineâs interest jump together with the Jewish one. Just again, even without historical memory (where are the Jewish Hasidic memorials â arenât in Ukraine? Do Hasidim have another Uman or Berdychiw? Then from what land occured leading figures of Zionism? Names of Hertzl, Zhabotinski or Baâal Shem Tov â do they mean nothing for Jews?) - only in Realpolitik friendly Ukraine as an ally would be very nice support for Jews. Whatever, it would be better than anti-Semitic Russia with crazy radical Islam.
So then, thereâs an American profit, Geschäft, as it is saying in Ukraine not so long.
P.S. I know US arenât any gods or wizards. If anyone can help to improve process - that would be very nice and good. Taking into account the weakness (temporary, of course, tempora curant dolores!) of Ukr. Civil society.
Thank you for your attention and sorry for possible errors in language.
Re: Logical Questions
Date: 2014-02-15 12:18 am (UTC)Ukraine has not existed under a totalitarian regime since mid 1980s. You presume the exemplars here are brutality by Berkut and Titushki, however, they are poor examples of 'mass men' from the book. It is my understanding that most men in Berkut have families and titushki don't pose a significant threat unless Ukraine turns autocratic. My issue is with the passive majority, who are very much part of society but refuse to acknowledge it and act accordingly. Again, 55% of population is against Maidan.
Exactly, and you seem to argue there's a moral imperative in teaching the fish to fly. The truth is, you can't teach a fish to fly and with a bird, you don't need to.
Don't confuse restraint with control. Opposition was prevented from escalating things or allowing a platform to anyone who would. They were not restrained from acting. Not all actions imply escalation. Their main problem is that they never fully embraced the ideals of Maidan and lack creativity and initiative to act effectively without escalating. It is perhaps fortunate that it turned out this way, as they are completely inadequate for conducting a reboot of the government. Whether intentionally or not, their real function is to allow a diplomatic solution and prevent real revolutionary leaders from emerging (at this point). I've explained previously why uncontrolled escalation would be a disaster. More importantly, opposition is not needed for people to self-organize. In fact, that's exactly what is going on, even if slowly, and will be a much more effective and resilient than what opposition could have created.
Re: Logical Questions
Date: 2014-02-15 02:27 pm (UTC)Re: Logical Questions
Date: 2014-02-15 09:59 pm (UTC)You don't actually think that the opp could prevent a true leader from emerging or suppress useful ideas? The stage may be important, but in the age of social networks, online streaming TV, crowd-sourcing and crowd-funding it's not at all critical. Most effective and interesting Maidan's initiatives were done without significant opp support. Public hospital comes to mind.
As to your own ideas, no one may pick them up, but in the modern world, appealing things tend to propagate horizontally by osmosis. Arestovich is a great example (regardless of his personal motivation). All he did was skillfully express an idea that's appealing to the public at large. It may not be implemented in a centralized fashion right now, but if the push comes to shove, it will be done on an individual level.
Re: Logical Questions
Date: 2014-02-15 10:47 pm (UTC)Re: Logical Questions
Date: 2014-02-16 12:50 am (UTC)You are absolutely correct and it's also a point I was trying to make - people in general and Maidan specifically should stop awaiting directions from opp. They should self-organize and act in ways that don't lead to escalation. This is already occurring and has been for some time.
The Opposition and small actors
Date: 2014-02-16 02:34 pm (UTC)Well, it is clear.
I assure you the civil society exists and wants to act.
But thereâs a good adage from a Soviet movie â2 captainsâ: ÐÑли Ð±Ñ Ð¼Ð½Ðµ не Ñо, ÑÑоб помогали, но Ð¥ÐТЯ ÐЫ ÐÐ ÐÐШÐÐÐ.
Thatâs pain in the ass with Opp. It doesnât help and ask for help, well, Nuland said the phrase about it (as touching to EU =) )
But it is throwing a monkey wrench into alternative actions , it impedes them.
Well, may be. But you yourself selected
âbudget usersâ as mass group that slows down a development.
Youâre right as to needed to involve a middle- & others classes.
But again, middle class is supporting Maidan. Upper-class (oligarchs) have its own business-reasons and more often supports regime, âcause it is frightened by losing their super-profits. Supported than Russian oligarchs the Putinâs regime â even if after it they losing their business whatever. The great business forever supports the strong power⦠if it goes within oligarch states.
Moreover the Oppâs mission could be a dialogue exactly with oligarchs â for they just will not hear the âsmall peopleâ, they need a peer companion for discussing terms of social contract.
I argue with you that the idleness of lower class (budget users, unschooling people etc.) is a problem for Maidan.
But why Opp. didnât begun negotiations with oligarchs? Do you think a small NGO could enter into such negotiations with them? They will compose such treaty with Putin rather than taking into account street rallies!
Is Ukr.society post-totalitarian? Arguments...
Date: 2014-02-15 04:08 pm (UTC)Theyâre the same âmass menâ, and their â I know about whom I talk you, Iâm familiar and see there personages always â their consciousness is derived from soviet experience. Paternalism, desire of strong hand, adoration of Stalin and memory of USSRâs epoch. A St George ribbon, at last. Thereâs a confrontation of the modern Ukr.nation according to western kind, and the Soviet-Empireâs quasi-nation, with Russian language as communication way. I believe you know it, but say these culturological things, for clarify even more the situation.
These men born in 50-80th canât imagine itself other life except as in paternalist regime. Their common stereotypes are âour great motherland USSR-Russia, we won in II WWâ, in general homophobia, banderophobia, aggressive ressentment toward nationalism (âthatâs all fascism, Hitler!!!â) and â malignant americanophobia. Tell them âthereâs American help to Maidanâ is the same as tell âthey sold a soul to devil thereâ. Could you imagine what happened in their brains when Nuland has appeared on Maidan? Almost a half of a country became scared by it! Do you know that a half of country mocks the Nulandâs cakes and sees in it a terrible mark of intervention by âthe bad cowboysâ?â.
Thereâs no any imputation to you, sir. It is only explanation, what and how they think. Itâs their education, itâs their habit, and as the saying is: âConsuetudo altera naturaâ. A habit is an another nature.
Than I would say there are exactly problems of sociology and cultural inheritance that could pass only over time. Theyâre the past of Ukr.nation, rudiments of the USSR that should go away.
But a trend was overturned only in 2004-2010 when it was a qualitative changes in social thought. Thatâs all easily explained â new generations have grown up. The experience of Russia and Belarusâ illustrate how this process can be returned as well.
Then I only would you understand that this âmajorityâ of budget users (civil employees) are par excellence a vestigium of Soviet epoch (except scientists, priests and teachers with students). We, hopefully, are talking not only about changing structure of political regime, but (primarily) about changing social mentality, isnât it so?
They donât believe in that they can change anything and get influence in the politics.
They had not been taught them what rights they have and how they may stand up for their rights.
Just now in the school teach âsit down and do not jump, do not meddle!â
And they fear as in a panic to lose work for not banally not having money. But the civ.society is the community of free men who have sufficient means for life and can accumulate them for the necessary political activity.
Youâll answer: well, but where are young men? But who educate them? Arenât the same old buffers formatted in USSR? Itâs the continued generation, the POST-Sovietic mass-men.
I would to emphasize: of course all that cannot be a justification of idleness. But all these cultur.details need to realize what really is happening here.
Re: Is Ukr.society post-totalitarian? Arguments...
Date: 2014-02-15 09:17 pm (UTC)You seem to either unconsciously or intentionally miss the problem I'm pointing out. With the exception of "budget-users", the groups you describe are individually small and don't account for lack of popular support for Maidan.
Maidan's biggest problem are lower- to upper- middle-class people who refuse to think that: a) Maidan can be successful b) success will help them personally c) failure will affect them personally. Although such lack of social position is partly due to Soviet upbringing, most of the things you describe are merely propaganda points directed at them and espoused by paid and unpaid Internet trolls. I assure you that its an inaccurate impression. People who represent the problem don't post online.
Their idleness may not be Maidan's fault, but it is Maidan's problem. It's the one that hasn't been addressed and attempts to frame it as intelligentsia vs bydlo are unhelpful to say the least.
As to opposition and practical details.
Date: 2014-02-15 04:47 pm (UTC)Do I correctly understand, that our opp. ânever fully embraced the ideals of Maidanâ?
And â I maybe donât understand â a mission of Opp. is giving a place for appearance of new public leaders. The Opp. hasnât got sufficient creativity and initiative to act. Then we need new leaders and public activity. Itâs very important that civil society itself begin to act.
But in the same time you said the Opp. must prevent real leaders from emerging?
How do you propose to prevent uncontrolled aggression, while we would have various groups that will do act independently?
And how do you tell about the uprising of new actors, whereas Opp. should block the emergence of such actors?
And do you mean than pacific details are adequate âfor conducting a reboot of the governmentâ? It seems to me the Januk regime do not understand other argument except forces.
Finally excuse me but Alla is right. The Opp. plays an inhibitory game now â she blocks up new initiatives and all new organizations coming to Maidan. What make the âSvobodaâ when kicked young public organizations out from Kiev City State Administration? What when attacked other locations occupied by Spilâna sprava? Is it a friendly action to shoot at people who take up their residence here? Looks like the Opp. contrariwise fights with their competitors pressing them out of the Oppâs field.
I donât mean the Opp would support young public organizations but at least she could do not interfere! Otherwise it looks as only simple competition. The Opp could help for extraparliamentary organization, support them, vector them, without arranging internecine warfare.
They split Ukr. civ. society and opponents of regime up, more than all Russian activity. Without telling about a low level of Ukr. oppositionâs reputation on East and South, these clashes within the ârevolutionary campâ only push indecided men away of the Maidan. Donât you know about Yacenyuk the Bunny? =) the unity of protest splits up by such actionsâ¦
Re: As to opposition and practical details.
Date: 2014-02-16 01:14 am (UTC)Re: Logical Questions
Date: 2014-02-15 05:32 am (UTC)Yes, absolutely. Although, I would qualify that statement a bit - during the current administration (though Iraq affair has made its contribution). There are many reasons why this is so and it's a separate conversation. The problem here for Ukraine, is that it technically isn't an ally. Russia taking the entire Ukraine would be a setback but not a geopolitical disaster. In fact, US pressuring EU into Eastern Partnership for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova shows that in this instance strategic interests were prioritized over immediate convenience. After all, US had the option to take Georgia and Moldova (maybe even with Prednestrovye and NATO membership) and give up Ukraine. It no longer has that option. Any attempt by Russia to take the entire Ukraine would threaten its territorial integrity and therefore Budapest Memo. If a Ukrainian breakup occurs, it would result in tremendous loss of influence for US.
The number one danger here for Ukraine is potential for federalization. Currently, it doesn't look like US would entertain it, but this may change if risks increase and Germany doesn't cave. This is what Russia is counting on. As I've said, it's a game of chicken: who will get scared first: US, Germany, oligarchs. Latest moves by Germany suggest it may be the first. ITS IMPORTANT THAT ANY LEGISLATIVE PROPOSAL FOR FEDERALIZATION RESULTS IN MASSIVE PUBLIC RESPONSE.
Re: Logical Questions
Date: 2014-02-15 04:57 pm (UTC)Further, about Budapest Memo. Sorry did I understand you right, that you wanted to say US should ignore the Memoâs point for it will more profitable, even until split down of Ukraine? If I correctly understand your message, US had an option to accept Georgia+Moldova to NATO, but now it hasnât. And now US has realized critical role of Bud.Memo.
Excuse me, but â didnât it be obvious before now? What occasions led the US thought to being aware of that? I realized already in 2008 that Ukraine could keep her independence up even in 2008, I donât presume US being forgotten about Budapest Memo etc.
Whether US did not seen Russia trying to restore USSR, and tie Ukraine in that union? Or had US a lack analysis of the situation in Ukraine? I canât conceive their character of thinkingâ¦
Or there's misunderstanding here?
Re: Logical Questions
Date: 2014-02-15 10:17 pm (UTC)Budapest Memo deals with territorial integrity and hostile action by a foreign sovereign. It doesn't quite rise to the level of a guarantee and doesn't apply if Yanuk wants to join Customs Union. If he did so a 2-3 years back, even with significant opposition, the memo wouldn't come into play. US could've given Ukraine up at that point without risking ignoring the Memo. It didn't. Instead, with the help of the Czech it pushed Eastern Partnership. This reflects understanding of strategic consequences of leaving Ukraine with Russia.
The only reason it is coming into play now is because Russia lost the entire Ukraine and is now trying to split it up. Yes, it was predictable on their part. What wasn't predictable is Yanuk completely abandoning EU integration rather than bargaining for a better deal. German position wasn't entirely expected either, particularly given the internal risks for CDU.
Are US so naives?
Date: 2014-02-16 02:37 pm (UTC)One moment, please.
I donât ask how can work the Memo.
I ask, did the US really not understand in 2008 next Russiaâs steps and inescapable such turn of situation in Ukraine?
Thatâs not about East.Partnership, but about NATO, firstly as it is a real force so needed now. And well demonstrated itself in Baltic.
Either are the US so naives that really was wondered by Yanuk turning back of EU? Did they mean that a wolf became a lamb? Well, Germanyâs turn is really unexpected, but Yanukâs one? I cannot believe in such simplicity of US!
Here, in Ukraine, no one believed sincerely YANUK going to EU. Itâs easier to teach a cat to eat only grass. We were always waiting from him such a shy!
And are in the world who trust in him? Well, how simple the world!
Re: Are US so naives?
Date: 2014-02-16 07:24 pm (UTC)So, again, his turn-around is irrational if you only consider 15 billion + gas pricing was the sole factor. There was another one that's not publicly known and was also not anticipated by US.
than opp & oligarchs
Date: 2014-02-17 02:12 am (UTC)It turn our conversation back to my question about negotiations between opposition and oligarchs.
Even if Yanuk has received something hidden of publics from Putin and has given something for him, itâs a trouble with him and Co. But not with oligarchs which should have been very concerned about such harsh turn-around to East.
Exactly oligarchs should have to make a lot more for preventing this stream of moving. At least to force their deputies and fractions in Rada to make a new majority coalition and vote for changing the Constitution and holding elections. This step could have stopped Yanukâs movement. But there was not any attempt to do something like.
This confuses me moreover⦠our upper business make itself a suicide? they really have leverages to turn a situation, but they do nothingâ¦Strangely. Do you have an idea whatâs up?
And again why the Opp. didnât enter into negotiations with oligarchs? Itâs clearest that small young NGO just cannot provide such negotiationsâ¦
Re: Logical Questions
Date: 2014-02-16 12:24 am (UTC)After Holocaust, Israel was created from scratch despite enormous Arab opposition and lukewarm international support. It was done by young people who shared a vision and were willing to do whatever it takes to see it implemented. Comparatively speaking, Ukrainian government is a small and inconsequential obstacle on the way to building a strong prosperous Ukraine. While parallels with Ukraine wouldn't be entirely accurate, all this is to say that "post-genocide nation" is poor explanation for apathy.
You appear to be under the impression that there's such a thing as "Jewish interest" that's unified in nature which is not surprising given how widespread conspiracy theories are in ex-USSR. It's true that Jews have outsize influence on American politics. However, the only topic where there's a unified Jewish position is Israel. Everything else is a sum of individual positions. Besides, my understanding is that majority of Jewish oligarchs in Ukraine are on the side of Maidan or is that not correct? The position of American Jews can be summed up as lukewarm support. There's significant apprehension that if the shit hits the fan, Jews would the first to bear the brunt of public anger. Ironically, each side blames Zydy on the other for the situation (though of course such views are less public on Maidan).
As to Jews
Date: 2014-02-16 02:46 pm (UTC)I accept your parallels between Jews and Ukrainians, but thereâs one difference. Eretz Israel was populated by a minority of Jews, which majority was either assimilants (assimilated Jews) or just annihilated in Holocaust. But that minority in Palestine was true active part of Jews due to this they won in such heavy war! Thatâs why your opinion about mine one is incorrect â I donât want to excuse ill state of Ukr.society, but your accusation would be correct if half of Ukrainians were killed and small minority ran away to a far land where this minority (20-40% of all population) indeed could construst prosperous Ukr. quickly. As an example of it are Ukr.diaspora in Canada or Paraguay.
Also I donât trust in conspiracy theories. Speaking about Jewish interest I had in mind Israel that I had written than.
But your sentence is really incorrect about Jewish apprehension.
As I wrote before, the anti-Semitic trend in Ukraine are shared and popularized by pro-Russian forces. It become evident if make an content-analysis of Russian outgiving statements. Thatâs a Russian shtick on Judeophobia.
The less public presence of such theme on Maidan demonstrates how such views are unpopular for Ukrainians, According to my experience a zone of following antisemitism is close coinciding with to what extent an individual is included and engaged Russian TV, RuNet and in general Russian sources. Do you not trust me? Look at statements of ROC and both at Greek-Catholic. The ratio of ought-for statements decreases exponentially.
But it seems to me Ukr.oligarchs not are strongly with Maidan. If it it were otherwise, it would already voted for the reform and Yanukâs resignation. But that still donât observed.
Finally but a little humor: żydy as Jews sometimes are named in Ukr.language is truly the same as in Polish żydy, żydowskie, or in Church Slavic żydowin. The negative connotation this word had got only in XIX in Russian-spoken tradition, No more. Do Jews mark Polish and old Ukr. word as anti-Semitic seriously? It would very sorrowfully and mistakenlyâ¦
But this linguistic casus is not so substantial for me, Just a specialist consultation =)
Re: As to Jews
Date: 2014-02-16 05:35 pm (UTC)I maintain that my statement on Jewish apprehension is entirely accurate, both in terms actual Jewish views and in a sense that their fears are firmly grounded. No one expects significant antisemitism if Maidan wins, but what if there's a protracted armed conflict? How many will use latent antisemitism (which is widespread on both sides) for their own nefarious purposes? Would Russia conduct a false flag to undermine US support? What about Bandera's 3 rules? - they contain scary parallels to Asimov's 3 laws and have been used this way in the past.
If you meant Israel as a point of support, it suggests a certain naivety. Israel is not a true geopolitical player. Nor would you really want it involved in a mess that already involves highest levels of US, Russian, EU, and now German governments. Interestingly, I've read an article which described that a few people in Samooborona served in Israeli army. That's immigrants though. Actual Israeli intelligence in Ukraine has its hands full establishing contacts and drawing up contingency plans for an evacuation, should it come to that.
Re: As to Jews
Date: 2014-02-17 02:13 am (UTC)Itâs only as a document of current stance of worldâs sight. The one document I found on this field was the statute written by M.Mikhnovsâkyi in 1902. As you can tumble to, itâs too long time before OUN-UPA. Whatever it was, itâs not very actual memory and idea for Ukrs. But a damage thereâs here. Itâs right. But not because the ideology itself.
Further, no, I never mean Israel as a point of support indeed. Iâve said Israel could having profit from Ukraine being friendly to Jewish nation, but thatâs a bit idealistic political dream, may be. Iâve said only our histories and contemporary friends and enemies being too close to each other, but no more. I would say we both have nothing to divide, but itâs off top.