You're correct in most of the things you say, especially with regards to Russian goals and strategies, particularly Odessa - it's crucial. However, the notion that escalation will automatically turn out good for Russia is premature. As is the one that Right Sector will do Russia's bidding.
Any necessary provocation can always be created. When it comes to using it for propaganda, it doesn't matter how sophisticated it is. It's the main difference between populations with strong notion of civil society and weak one. The former requires sophisticated propaganda and the latter will do with crude one. Russia did not need ODA captures and will not need Right Sector for its plans (though it will milks any excuses they provide for propaganda value).
What Russia needs is a very significant escalation, very quickly. Then, there's no chance for a diplomatic solution and Yanuk is their captive. If the escalation is incremental (like ODA capture was), then it puts a pressure on Yanuk, his oligarchs, and Germany. Hopefully, one of them will crack at an increment before the civil war.
If Poroshenko is one of the people behind Right Sector, its seems dubious that US would entertain him as a candidate without taking advantage of his influence over RS. Russia doesn't need the Right Sector, they could just organize a mass-casualty event and blame it on RS or another group.
You're right that there will be an escalation and Russia will use for propaganda and push Yanuk to act. However, it will not be because Russia needs an excuse, but because diplomatic solution has exhausted itself at this particular stage. 3 months of peaceful protests have resulted in no measurable gains in both, Ukraine and EU, so what else do you propose? In this escalation, the goal of US would be to make it measured one, taking it one notch below state of emergency, putting pressure on Germany and oligarchs. Russia will try to push Yanuk into something that causes large number of casualties. This is why I said that EU intransigence will bring Ukraine closer to a civil war than US would otherwise be comfortable with.
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timeasmymeasure
Mostly Right
Date: 2014-02-14 05:27 am (UTC)You're correct in most of the things you say, especially with regards to Russian goals and strategies, particularly Odessa - it's crucial. However, the notion that escalation will automatically turn out good for Russia is premature. As is the one that Right Sector will do Russia's bidding.
Any necessary provocation can always be created. When it comes to using it for propaganda, it doesn't matter how sophisticated it is. It's the main difference between populations with strong notion of civil society and weak one. The former requires sophisticated propaganda and the latter will do with crude one. Russia did not need ODA captures and will not need Right Sector for its plans (though it will milks any excuses they provide for propaganda value).
What Russia needs is a very significant escalation, very quickly. Then, there's no chance for a diplomatic solution and Yanuk is their captive. If the escalation is incremental (like ODA capture was), then it puts a pressure on Yanuk, his oligarchs, and Germany. Hopefully, one of them will crack at an increment before the civil war.
If Poroshenko is one of the people behind Right Sector, its seems dubious that US would entertain him as a candidate without taking advantage of his influence over RS. Russia doesn't need the Right Sector, they could just organize a mass-casualty event and blame it on RS or another group.
You're right that there will be an escalation and Russia will use for propaganda and push Yanuk to act. However, it will not be because Russia needs an excuse, but because diplomatic solution has exhausted itself at this particular stage. 3 months of peaceful protests have resulted in no measurable gains in both, Ukraine and EU, so what else do you propose? In this escalation, the goal of US would be to make it measured one, taking it one notch below state of emergency, putting pressure on Germany and oligarchs. Russia will try to push Yanuk into something that causes large number of casualties. This is why I said that EU intransigence will bring Ukraine closer to a civil war than US would otherwise be comfortable with.